As Europe enters the second half of 2025, nuclear energy development has clearly gained pace. From the UK’s Sizewell C financial closure to Poland’s dual-track strategy, Sweden’s SMR shortlist, Romania’s refurbishment, and the Czech Republic’s Dukovany expansion, the sector is moving beyond policy discussion into an execution phase. The emerging framework reflects a dual pathway: large units and SMRs advancing in parallel, backed by financing and regulatory innovation, with life-extension projects adding stability.

Key Developments (July–September)

1) UK Sizewell C FID (22 Jul)

A £38bn project, with 44.9% equity held by the UK government, 12.5% by EDF, and the remainder by pension and infrastructure funds. The adoption of the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model allows revenue recovery during construction, significantly reducing financing risk. This is seen as a template for future European projects.

2) Sweden Vattenfall SMR shortlist (21 Aug)

Candidate technologies narrowed down to BWRX-300 and Rolls-Royce SMR. Sweden’s SMR strategy is now shifting from concept to pre-deployment, addressing its grid’s need for flexible, dispatchable generation.

3) Poland’s dual-track nuclear strategy

• SMRs (28 Aug): Orlen and Synthos confirmed a BWRX-300 project at Włocławek through their OSGE joint venture, with at least two units targeted by 2035.

• Large units (3 Sep): Government approval for site works at Lubiatowo-Kopalino for three AP1000s, central to Poland’s decarbonisation and energy security strategy.

4) Romania Cernavoda-1 refurbishment (5 Sep)

The CANDU-6 unit entered a major outage for long-term operation, extending its service life by another two decades. This secures capacity while new build projects remain in planning.

5) Czech Dukovany project back on track (Jun)
After legal hurdles, EDU II and KHNP signed final contracts, marking a decisive step in Czechia’s pursuit of energy independence and diversification.

Structural Signals

1) Financing innovation: public-private alignment
The RAB model at Sizewell C demonstrates how sovereign equity, institutional investors, and cost-sharing can make large nuclear bankable under high interest rates. Similar mechanisms may shape France’s EPR2 and the Netherlands’ Borssele AP1000.

2) Central & Eastern Europe: parallel deployment
Poland’s strategy of large units for baseload, SMRs for flexibility represents a dual approach. Dukovany reinforces how nuclear is also tied to industrial upgrading and geopolitical independence in the region.

3) SMRs: entering licensing and engineering readiness
With Sweden narrowing to two candidates and Poland breaking ground, SMRs are moving into pre-commercial phases. Meanwhile, the EU SMR Alliance is working on licensing harmonisation to reduce regulatory fragmentation. If successful, Europe could see its first SMRs in commercial service before 2030.

4) Life-extension: securing the near term
Romania’s Cernavoda-1 shows how refurbishment provides stable, low-carbon output at relatively modest cost, bridging supply until new reactors are delivered. Life-extension is set to play a major role in Europe’s decarbonisation timeline.

Risks & Uncertainties

· Schedule and cost overruns – exemplified by Hinkley Point C, still Europe’s cautionary tale.

· Complex permitting and legal risks – Dukovany demonstrates how litigation can disrupt project pacing.

· Supply-chain and workforce bottlenecks – multiple projects launching in parallel may strain both nuclear-grade manufacturing capacity and skilled labour pools, requiring regional coordination.